A majority of voters in every constituency across Yorkshire and Humberside want their MP to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal today, according to new analysis of polling.
The research is based on a huge YouGov poll of more than 25,000 voters across every constituency in England, Wales and Scotland.
Its findings spell bad news for Downing Street ahead of the "meaningful vote" on Ms May's Brexit plans.
But the research also gives a clear warning to Labour. It suggests Labour’s support is now heavily concentrated amongst voters concerned about, or opposed to Brexit. And it warns that if Labour in any way enables Brexit - perhaps by giving MPs a “wink and a nod” permission to rebel, the party could lose dozens of seats including Barnsley East, Bradford South, Great Grimsby, Hemsworth, Wentworth and Dearne, Leeds Central and Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford at the next General Election.
The vast majority of Labour voters in every region now strongly support a new public vote and staying in the EU. If even a fraction of them were to desert the party in a snap General Election, this analysis shows the Conservatives would be on course to win a 200-seat majority.
Stephanie Peacock, Judith Cummins, Melaine Onn, Jon Trickett, John Healy, Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper are amongst the prominent local Labour supporters of Brexit who would lose their seats in this post-Brexit wipe-out which would include Party Chairman Ian Lavery In Wansbeck, shadow Cabinet Office minister Jon Trickett in Hemsworth, Melanie Onn in Grimsby and Caroline Flint in Don Valley.
Other losers would include Wes Streeting in Ilford North, John Mann in Bassetlaw, Gloria De Piero in Ashfield, Lloyd Russell-Moyle in Brighton Kemptown, Dennis Skinner in Bolsover, Gareth Snell in Stoke-on-Trent Central, Tom Watson in West Bromwich East and Owen Smith in Pontypridd.
Nationally, once “don't knows" are excluded, a majority of voters in just two constituencies across Britain -- Christchurch in Dorset and South Holland & the Deepings in Lincolnshire, back Theresa May’s deal.
Even voters in the Prime Minister’s own constituency of Maidenhead are against her deal, opposing it by a majority of 54% to 46%.
Commenting, Peter Kellner, one of Britain’s most respected pollsters and a past president of YouGov, stated: “The coalition that produced a narrow majority for Brexit three years ago is falling apart. It brought together traditionalists in Conservative Britain who saw the EU as a threat to British values and sovereignty, with families in Labour’s heartlands who felt that ‘Brussels’ threatened their living standards and their children’s job prospects.
“The Prime Minister’s plan is unpopular essentially because few people in either group think it tackles the threat they face. The fact that only two constituencies in the entire country (not including her own) want their MP to support her deal shows just how risky it would be for the Prime Minister to force this deal on the people now.
“But Jeremy Corbyn also faces a big and immediate challenge. If he is seen to facilitate an unpopular Brexit, he will alienate the large majority of Labour voters to want the UK to stay in the EU. The precise election outcome some months from now is impossible to predict; but this MRP analysis shows in stark form the nature and size of threat.
“How, though, does Corbyn address the opposite problem: if he backs a new public vote, won’t he risk losing many Labour supporters who voted Leave in 2016? YouGov’s data suggests that this is a much smaller danger than Corbyn and some of his MPs think: even in Labour’s Leave-voting heartlands, Labour supporters now back Remain over the Prime Minister’s deal by five-to-one.
“More to the point, the polling evidence suggests a way forward for Labour that could address both its Remainers and Leavers. By supporting a public vote, it can appeal to the large majority of Labour voters who are pro-Remain; and by promoting social and economic policies that help the party’s heartlands to recover, it has its best chance of addressing the underlying concerns that led a minority of Labour supporters to vote for Brexit in the first place. Brexit is the symptom of Labour’s electoral dilemma, not its root cause.”